Junyu Ding

Water resources are the most important guarantees for sustainable socioeconomic development in arid regions. However, serious water scarcity puts great pressure on the sustainable development of the northwest arid region of China. Based on the “matching-constraint” perspective, this study used the Gini coefficient, imbalance index, and growth drag model of water resources to quantify the spatiotemporal evolution of water resource utilization (WRU) and economic development (ED) in the northwest arid region from 2009 to 2019. The results showed the following: (1) The matching degree of WRU and ED in Gansu and Xinjiang from 2009 to 2019 was poorer than that in Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Qinghai. Cities with the high matching type of WRU and ED were dominant, with a proportion of 60.78%. (2) During the study period, the growth drag of water resources showed an “N-shaped” change of “rising–declining–rising” and a spatial pattern of “decreasing from inland to coastal” in the northwest arid region. The average growth drag coefficients for the five northwestern provinces were as follows: Xinjiang (2.22%), Gansu (1.61%), Ningxia (1.41%), Qinghai (1.01%), and Shaanxi (0.84%). The total percentage of low and medium constraint type cities was 74.51%. (3) Based on the urban “matching-constraint” types, the WRU status was divided into four zone types: Zones I and IV had relatively well-allocated water resources; however, zone IV had more significant water resource constraints, with the growth drag coefficient ranging from 1.10% to 2.30%. An imbalance between WRU and ED existed in Zones II and III; moreover, the water resource constraints of these two zones were also significant, with growth drag coefficients ranging from 0.12% to 1.47% and 1.03% to 2.90%, respectively. Additionally, we explored the driving mechanisms of WRU and sustainable ED in the northwest arid region. Policy recommendations are proposed for the optimal use of water resources, capital, and labor for different types of cities.