Lili Zhou

Background: Adult-type diffuse glioma (ADG) is the most common primary malignant tumor of the central nervous system. Its highly invasive nature, marked heterogeneity, and resistance to therapy contribute to a high risk of recurrence and poor prognosis. At present, the lack of reliable prognostic tools poses a significant barrier to the development of individualized treatment strategies. Objective: This study aimed to develop an effective prognostic model for ADG by integrating multiple machine learning algorithms, in order to enhance the precision of individualized clinical decision-making. Methods: In this retrospective study, 160 newly diagnosed patients with ADG who underwent surgical resection and histopathological confirmation at our institution between June 2019 and September 2021 were included. A total of 32 variables, including clinical characteristics, molecular biomarkers, and preoperative hematological indicators, were collected. Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were defined as the study endpoints. Feature selection was performed using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, extreme gradient boosting, and random forest algorithms. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and log-rank tests were used for survival analysis. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were constructed to identify independent prognostic factors, and nomograms were developed accordingly. The model’s discriminative ability, calibration, and clinical utility were evaluated using the concordance index, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (area under the curve), calibration plots, and Kaplan-Meier analysis. Results: Age, neutrophil percentage–to-albumin ratio (NPAR), and platelet-to-mean platelet volume ratio were identified as independent prognostic factors for OS, while age and NPAR were independent predictors for PFS (all P<.001). The prognostic models based on these variables demonstrated good predictive performance, with concordance index values of 0.731 and 0.763 for the training and validation cohorts in the OS model, respectively. The PFS model also showed robust performance. Area under the curve values and calibration curves further supported the models’ accuracy and stability. Risk stratification analysis revealed clear survival differences between risk groups (all P<.05), indicating strong clinical applicability. Conclusions: This study is the first to identify preoperative NPAR as a significant prognostic biomarker for ADG using machine learning approaches. The prognostic model incorporating NPAR, platelet-to-mean platelet volume ratio, and age demonstrated favorable predictive performance, offering a novel perspective for accurate risk stratification and personalized treatment in patients with ADG.

BACKGROUND Adult-type diffuse glioma (ADG) is the most common primary malignant tumor of the central nervous system. Its highly invasive nature, marked heterogeneity, and resistance to therapy contribute to a high risk of recurrence and poor prognosis. At present, the lack of reliable prognostic tools poses a significant barrier to the development of individualized treatment strategies. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to develop an effective prognostic model for ADG by integrating multiple machine learning algorithms, in order to enhance the precision of individualized clinical decision-making. METHODS In this retrospective study, 160 newly diagnosed patients with ADG who underwent surgical resection and histopathological confirmation at our institution between June 2019 and September 2021 were included. A total of 32 variables, including clinical characteristics, molecular biomarkers, and preoperative hematological indicators, were collected. Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were defined as the study endpoints. Feature selection was performed using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, extreme gradient boosting, and random forest algorithms. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and log-rank tests were used for survival analysis. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were constructed to identify independent prognostic factors, and nomograms were developed accordingly. The model’s discriminative ability, calibration, and clinical utility were evaluated using the concordance index, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (area under the curve), calibration plots, and Kaplan-Meier analysis. RESULTS Age, neutrophil percentage–to-albumin ratio (NPAR), and platelet-to-mean platelet volume ratio were identified as independent prognostic factors for OS, while age and NPAR were independent predictors for PFS (all P<.001). The prognostic models based on these variables demonstrated good predictive performance, with concordance index values of 0.731 and 0.763 for the training and validation cohorts in the OS model, respectively. The PFS model also showed robust performance. Area under the curve values and calibration curves further supported the models’ accuracy and stability. Risk stratification analysis revealed clear survival differences between risk groups (all P<.05), indicating strong clinical applicability. CONCLUSIONS This study is the first to identify preoperative NPAR as a significant prognostic biomarker for ADG using machine learning approaches. The prognostic model incorporating NPAR, platelet-to-mean platelet volume ratio, and age demonstrated favorable predictive performance, offering a novel perspective for accurate risk stratification and personalized treatment in patients with ADG.