Predictive Modelling of Land Cover Changes in the Greater Amanzule Peatlands Using Multi-Source Remote Sensing and Machine Learning Techniques

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Abstract
The Greater Amanzule Peatland (GAP) in Ghana represents an important ecosystem facing dynamic land cover changes as a result of both natural and anthropogenic factors. This study integrates multispectral and radar remote sensing data from Landsat-7 and -8, L-band SAR, and SRTM to conduct a machine learning-based analysis of these changes from 2010 to 2020 and to predict future scenarios up to 2040. Findings reveal a 12% expansion in peatland cover, equivalent to approximately 6,570 ± 308.59 hectares, despite declines in specific peatland types. Concurrently, anthropogenic land uses have increased, evidenced by an 85% rise in rubber plantations (from 30,530 ± 110.96 hectares to 56,617 ± 220.90 hectares) and a 6% reduction in natural forest cover (5,965 ± 353.72 hectares). Sparse vegetation, including smallholder farms, decreased by 35% from 45,064 ± 163.79 hectares to 29,424 ± 114.81 hectares. Projections for 2030 and 2040 indicate minimal changes based on current trends; however, these do not consider potential impacts from climate change, large-scale development projects, and demographic shifts, necessitating cautious interpretation. The results highlight areas of stability and vulnerability within the GAP and offer critical insights for the development of targeted conservation strategies. Additionally, the methodological framework presented provides a robust approach for accurate and detailed landscape-scale monitoring of tropical peatlands, applicable to other regions facing similar environmental challenges.

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