Secondary succession promotes carbon accumulation, whereas aridity constrains carbon dynamics in tropical dry forests

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Abstract
Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests (SDTFs) play a crucial role in carbon storage and biodiversity conservation, yet they have been extensively altered by land-use change and increasing aridity associated with climate change. This study evaluated how secondary succession and aridity influence the functional structure of tree communities and carbon dynamics in Brazilian SDTFs. We sampled 78 plots (0.1 ha) representing three successional stages (early, intermediate, and late) across sites in the states of Minas Gerais, Bahia, and Paraíba. Carbon stocks were estimated using allometric equations, whereas temporal carbon dynamics were assessed in 54 remeasured plots. Carbon stocks increased along the successional gradient, accompanied by declines in stem density and community mean wood density. Late-successional forests exhibited the highest carbon stocks, highlighting the importance of conserving mature forests for maintaining aboveground carbon stocks and mitigating climate change. In contrast, aridity had no direct effect on mean structural and functional attributes but significantly reduced carbon gains and net carbon change, particularly in advanced successional stages. Carbon losses were negatively influenced by soil water-holding capacity and by temporal increases in community mean wood density. These findings indicate that secondary succession is the primary driver of carbon accumulation in SDTFs, whereas aridity mainly affects temporal carbon dynamics. Increasing aridity under future climate change scenarios may reduce net carbon accumulation and slow the structural and functional recovery of these forests.

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