Spatial Analysis Spotlighting Early Childhood Leprosy Transmission in a Hyperendemic Municipality of the Brazilian Amazon Region

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Abstract
More than 200,000 new cases of leprosy were reported by 105 countries in 2011. The disease is a public health problem in Brazil, particularly within high-burden pockets in the Amazon region where leprosy is hyperendemic among children. We applied geographic information systems and spatial analysis to determine the spatio-temporal pattern of leprosy cases in a hyperendemic municipality of the Brazilian Amazon region (Castanhal). Moreover, we performed active surveillance to collect clinical, epidemiological and serological data of the household contacts of people affected by leprosy and school children in the general population. The occurrence of subclinical infection and overt disease among the evaluated individuals was correlated with the spatio-temporal pattern of leprosy. The pattern of leprosy cases showed significant spatio-temporal heterogeneity (pp<0.0001). Eight new cases were detected among 302 evaluated household contacts: two living in areas of clusters of high detection rate and six in hyperendemic census tracts. Of 188 examined students, 134 (71.3%) lived in hyperendemic areas, 120 (63.8%) were dwelling less than 100 meters of at least one reported leprosy case, 125 (66.5%) showed immunological evidence (positive anti-PGL-I IgM titer) of subclinical infection, and 9 (4.8%) were diagnosed with leprosy (8 within 200 meters of a case living in the same area). Spatial analysis provided a better understanding of the high rate of early childhood leprosy transmission in this region. These findings can be applied to guide leprosy control programs to target intervention to high risk areas. Leprosy can lead to physical disabilities and deformities if not diagnosed and treated early. Even today, the disease affects more than 200,000 people per year, particularly the poorest people from developing countries, such as India, Brazil and Indonesia. Cases among children <15 years old have been used as an important indicator of recent transmission in the community. Recently, geographic information systems and spatial analysis have become important tools for epidemiology, helping to understand the transmission dynamics of several diseases. In this work, we determined the spatial and temporal distribution of leprosy in a hyperendemic municipality of the Brazilian Amazon region. In association with clinical, epidemiological and serological data of household contacts and school children in the general population, we further correlated the occurrence of subclinical infection and overt disease with the distribution of reported cases. We identified heterogeneity in the distribution of leprosy, with significant clusters of high and low detection rates. Our analysis revealed that children with leprosy or those harboring subclinical infection were in close proximity to spatial and temporal clusters of leprosy cases. These findings can be applied to guide leprosy control programs to target intervention more systematically to areas where the risk of leprosy is high.

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