Geospatial Assessment of Agricultural Sustainability Using Multi-Criteria Analysis: A Case Study of the Grocka Municipality, Serbia

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Abstract
Agricultural land represents a fundamental production resource and one of the key factors of ecological and economic stability in rural and peri-urban areas. In the municipality of Grocka, the impacts of urbanization, demographic decline, and changes in the agrarian production structure have led to spatial degradation and reduced economic sustainability. To assess the current state and potential of agriculture at the settlement level, a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) integrated with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) was applied. The analysis encompassed demographic, production, environmental, and spatial indicators, normalized using the min–max scaling method and aggregated through a weighted sum. Criteria weights were defined based on a combination of literature review and expert judgment. The results reveal spatial variations in the level of sustainability and enable the identification of priority zones for agro-economic improvement, areas of moderate stability, and spaces suitable for developing sustainable agricultural models. Sensitivity testing (±20% variation in weights) confirmed the robustness of the results. The identified zones and proposed measures aim to revitalize degraded areas, preserve permanent crops, and strengthen production and institutional capacities. The applied methodological framework can serve as a tool for planning and policymaking in sustainable agricultural development, particularly in peri-urban contexts.

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