Chasing the Tides: Searching for Orbital Decay Signatures in Transit Timing Data and Tidal Models for 20 Hot Jupiters

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Abstract
In this work, we present a transit timing variation analysis for 20 hot Jupiter systems, which we interpret with theoretical tidal dissipation models. For the majority of the sample, we conclude that a constant orbital period model represents the timing data best. Only WASP-12 b, TrES-1 b and WASP-121 b exhibit a changing orbital period, according to the most up-to-date results. We updated the orbital decay rate of WASP-12 b to P ̇ = − 29.4 ± 4.0 ms yr − 1 and the corresponding stellar tidal quality factor to Q ∗ ′ = 1.72 ± 0.18 × 1 0 5 . For TrES-1 b, the median quadratic model suggests a period decrease at a rate of −14.9 ± 0.6 ms yr −1 , but the corresponding Q ∗ ′ = 570 ± 60 does not agree with the theoretical estimates, which suggest Q ∗ ′ ∼ 1 0 6 due to internal gravity wave dissipation. Lastly, WASP-121 b exhibits orbital growth at a rate of 15.1 ± 0.8 ms yr −1 , and theoretical results support outward migration due to strong inertial wave dissipation.
Funding Information
  • UK Research and Innovation (UKRI1179)
  • Science and Technology Facilities Council (ST/W000873/1)
  • Istanbul Üniversitesi (BAP-3685)
  • Turkey Ministry of Development (2016K12137)
  • Türkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Araştırma Kurumu (123F293)
  • Agencia Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo (32240028)
  • Carlsbergfondet (CF25-0040)
  • Ministero dell'Istruzione e del Merito (2022J4H55R)

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