RETREAT Score Accurately Predicts the Long-Term Risk of HCC Recurrence After Liver Transplantation: A Single-Center Real-Life Validation

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Abstract
Background: Liver transplantation (LT) for Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is still burdened by a significant risk of tumor recurrence. The aim of this study was to apply the Risk Estimation of Tumor Recurrence After Transplant (RETREAT) score for prediction of HCC recurrence and survival. Methods: This retrospective study included all adult patients who consecutively underwent LT for HCC from January 2000 to July 2022 at a single institution. Results: During a median follow-up of 64 months, 56 (19%) out of 298 patients [54%, 36% and 10% with a RETREAT score equal to 0/1 (low), 2/3 (medium) and 4–6 (high), respectively] experienced HCC recurrence after a median of 31 months. The HCC recurrence rates at 1, 5 and 10 years were respectively 4%, 16% and 23%. The 5-year RFS for low-, medium- and high-risk groups were 93%, 78% and 58% (p < 0.001), respectively. In the competitive risk analysis, the medium- and high-risk RETREAT groups had respectively a 2.3 HR (p = 0.017) and 6.4 HR (p < 0.001) of HCC recurrence compared with the low-risk group. Overall, 119 patients died [32 (27%) due to HCC recurrence], and the 5-year survival was 74% (95%, 86% and 61% for low-, medium- and high-risk groups, respectively). In the multivariate analysis, the RETREAT score was associated with the overall survival only for the highest risk class, which yielded a 2.5 HR of death compared with the lowest risk categories (p < 0.001). Conclusions: This study validates the RETREAT score and confirms its ability to predict the risk of HCC recurrence.

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