The validity of the original EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II in patients over the age of seventy

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Abstract
EuroSCORE II, despite improving on the original EuroSCORE system, has not solved all the calibration and predictability issues. We investigated the sensitivity, specificity and predictability of original EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II system in elderly patients. The original logistic EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II were assessed via receiver operator characteristic (ROC) and Hosmer–Lemeshow test probability analysis with regard to accuracy of predicting in-hospital mortality. Analysis was performed on isolated coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) (n = 2913), aortic valve replacement (AVR) (n = 814), mitral valve surgery (MVR) (n = 340), combined AVR and CABG cases (n = 517) and the above cases combined (n = 4584). Elderly was defined as ≥70 years old. Age P < 0.0001, and for isolated CABG, P = 0.05 and AVR, P = 0.06. The original EuroSCORE and the EuroSCORE II risk models should be used with caution in patients aged 70 or older undergoing cardiac surgery in the modern era. Below the age of 70, both models are sensitive, specific and have good predictive power. Our work needs validation by other large groups.

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