Drought, fire, and rainforest endemics: A case study of two threatened frogs impacted by Australia's “Black Summer”

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Abstract
Deepening droughts and unprecedented wildfires are at the leading edge of climate change. Such events pose an emerging threat to species maladapted to these perturbations, with the potential for steeper declines than may be inferred from the gradual erosion of their climatic niche. This study focused on two species of amphibians—Philoria kundagungan and Philoria richmondensis (Limnodynastidae)—from the Gondwanan rainforests of eastern Australia that were extensively affected by the “Black Summer” megafires of 2019/2020 and the severe drought associated with them. We sought to assess the impact of these perturbations by quantifying the extent of habitat affected by fire, assessing patterns of occurrence and abundance of calling males post‐fire, and comparing post‐fire occurrence and abundance with that observed pre‐fire. Some 30% of potentially suitable habitat for P. kundagungan was fire affected, and 12% for P. richmondensis. Field surveys revealed persistence in some burnt rainforest; however, both species were detected at a higher proportion of unburnt sites. There was a clear negative effect of fire on the probability of site occupancy, abundance and the probability of persistence for P. kundagungan. For P. richmondensis, effects of fire were less evident due to the limited penetration of fire into core habitat; however, occupancy rates and abundance of calling males were depressed during the severe drought that prevailed just prior to the fires, with the reappearance of calling males linked to the degree of rehydration of breeding habitat post‐fire. Our results highlight the possibility that severe negative impacts of climate change for montane rainforest endemics may be felt much sooner than commonly anticipated under a scenario of gradual (decadal‐scale) changes in mean climatic conditions. Instead, the increased rate of severe stochastic events places these narrow range species at a heightened risk of extinction in the near‐term.

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