The Multicandidate Calculus of Voting: Application to Canadian Federal Elections

Author:
  • JBJerome H. Black
    Jerome H. Black
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Abstract
This paper first operationalizes and tests the probability components in the expected utility-based multicandidate calculus of voting, using survey data drawn from the 1968 and 1972 Canadian federal elections. With the choice context taken as first versus second choice voting, it is seen that the probability terms measuring the impact of the individual's vote on election outcomes are substantially related to the actual voting decision. Second, several hypotheses based on the notion that the accuracy of probability calculations will vary from citizen to citizen are offered and tested. Finally, the implications of the present results for the current debate on the appropriateness of the expected utility model for voter decision making (which has been centered exclusively on the two candidate calculus of voting) are briefly considered.