Extreme Weather and Civil War: Does Drought Fuel Conflict in Somalia through Livestock Price Shocks?
Top Cited Papers
Open Access
- 25 March 2014
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Wiley in American Journal of Agricultural Economics
- Vol. 96 (4) , 1157-1182
Abstract
A growing body of evidence shows a causal relationship between extreme weather events and civil conflict incidence at the global level. We find that this causality is also valid for droughts and local violent conflicts in a within‐country setting over a short time frame in the case of Somalia. We estimate that a one standard deviation increase in drought intensity and length raises the likelihood of conflict by 62%. We also find that drought affects conflict through livestock price changes, establishing livestock markets as the primary channel of transmission in Somalia.Keywords
All Related Versions
This publication has 82 references indexed in Scilit:
- The 2011 Somalia famine: Context, causes, and complicationsGlobal Food Security, 2012
- Hidden dimensions of the Somalia famineGlobal Food Security, 2012
- Climate variability and conflict risk in East Africa, 1990–2009Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2012
- Shocks and Asset Dynamics in EthiopiaEconomic Development and Cultural Change, 2011
- Climate not to blame for African civil warsProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2010
- Temperatures and cyclones strongly associated with economic production in the Caribbean and Central AmericaProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2010
- Warming increases the risk of civil war in AfricaProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2009
- Better off stateless: Somalia before and after government collapseJournal of Comparative Economics, 2007
- GMM estimation with cross sectional dependenceJournal of Econometrics, 1999
- Specification and estimation of spatial linear regression modelsRegional Science and Urban Economics, 1992