Shifting Yet Persisting? Multiple Dimensions of Habitat Suitability Change in Northeast Atlantic Cetaceans

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Abstract
Aim: To assess how climate change may alter the extent, spatial distribution and persistence of suitable habitat for 16 cetacean species in the Northeast Atlantic under contrasting climate scenarios. Location: Northeast Atlantic Ocean, spanning from Icelandic waters to tropical West Africa. Taxon: Cetaceans. Methods: We used Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) to project habitat suitability of 16 cetacean species for 2030–2100 under two climate scenarios (SSP1‐1.9 and SSP5‐8.5). We quantified changes in habitat extent (basin‐scale suitability, potential species richness and net habitat change), habitat redistribution (trailing‐edge, leading‐edge and centroid shifts) and habitat persistence (refugia index and refugial retention). Results: Under SSP1‐1.9, habitat changes were generally small. Under SSP5‐8.5, 12 of 16 species showed net contraction of suitable habitat (largest in Orcinus orca , −48.3%), whereas two remained broadly stable and two expanded. Habitat redistribution showed a consistent poleward shift at leading edges, with 13 species shifting poleward by up to 30.1 km/decade ( Delphinus delphis ), whereas trailing‐edge shifts were predominantly equatorward and centroid responses ranged from little change to substantial poleward displacement. Habitat persistence varied little, with 10 species retaining more than 90% of baseline suitability. Stenella frontalis uniquely combined the lowest refugial retention (82%) with substantial net habitat loss (−33%). Multi‐species refugia were concentrated along continental shelf systems, particularly the northwest African shelf, Iberian shelf‐break, Bay of Biscay–Celtic Sea and Norwegian shelf–North Sea. Main Conclusions: Climate change is projected to reorganise suitable habitat rather than uniformly reduce its extent for Northeast Atlantic cetaceans. The concentration of persistent habitat along continental shelves suggests that physiographic stability contributes to maintaining suitable habitat despite warming. Habitat extent, latitudinal shifts and persistence represent complementary but only weakly coupled dimensions of climate‐driven habitat change, indicating that no single metric adequately captures projected habitat change. Considering these dimensions together provides a more complete basis for identifying candidate priority areas for conservation planning under alternative emissions pathways.
Funding Information
  • Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (UIDB/MARE/04292/2025)
  • Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (LA/P/0069/2020)
  • Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (UID/04326/2025)
  • Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (UID/PRR/04326/2025)
  • Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (LA/P/0101/2020)
  • Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (2022.00861.CEECIND/CP1729/CT0003)
  • European Commission (101217661)
  • Fundo Regional para a Ciência e Tecnologia (DOC PROF 55/2022)

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