Is your clinical prediction model past its sell by date?
- 18 July 2022
- journal article
- editorial
- Published by BMJ in Emergency Medicine Journal
- Vol. 39 (12) , 956-958
Abstract
One problem with CPMs is that their predictive performance can deteriorate with time. For example, in 2013, Hickey et al3 investigated the temporal change in prognostic performance of a CPM called EUROSCORE examining mortality after cardiothoracic surgery. They found that the model became increasingly mis-calibrated over time, in the sense that the observed mortality proportion diverged from the predicted mortality over time.Keywords
Funding Information
- National Institute of Health (NIHR300246)
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