Altered RSV Epidemiology and Genetic Diversity Following the COVID-19 Pandemic

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Abstract
Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is a leading cause of acute respiratory tract infection, with greatest impact on infants, immunocompromised individuals, and older adults. RSV prevalence decreased substantially following the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic but later rebounded with initially abnormal seasonality. The biological and epidemiological factors underlying this altered behavior remain poorly defined. In this retrospective cohort study, we examined RSV epidemiology, clinical severity, and genetic diversity in the years surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic. We found that changes in RSV diagnostic platforms drove increased detections in outpatient settings after 2020 and that hospitalized adults with RSV-A were at higher risk of needing intensive care than those with RSV-B. While the population structure of RSV-A remained unchanged, the population structure of RSV-B shifted in geographically distinct clusters. Mutations in the antigenic regions of the fusion protein suggest convergent evolution with potential implications for vaccine and therapeutic development.

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