Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Ecuador’s Hydropower Under Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios to 2060

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Abstract
Renewable energy deployment has accelerated globally in recent years, with renewables accounting for 29% of global electricity generation by 2024. In this context, Ecuador has significantly expanded its renewable capacity, relying predominantly on hydropower, which represented 70% of total electricity generation in 2024. Installed capacity increased from 1707 MW in 2000 to 5371 MW in 2024. This study addresses a research gap by integrating climate scenario analysis with long-term energy system modeling, evaluating the viability of Ecuador’s hydropower sector under four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios through 2060 using the TIMES platform. The results project reductions in hydropower generation of 22%, 19%, and 15% under RCP 8.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 4.5, respectively, with a modest increase of 1.4% under RCP 2.6, driven by changes in water availability. Overall, an average decline of approximately 14% is projected by 2060. These findings indicate that reductions in hydropower generation may compromise system reliability in hydro-dependent systems such as Ecuador. While the quantified impacts are specific to the national context, the relationship between climate variability, capacity factors, and electricity generation provides insights relevant for other regions with similar hydropower dependence. The study highlights the need to integrate climate projections into future energy planning.

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