Changes in the African monsoon region at medium‐term time horizon using 12 AR4 coupled models under the A1b emissions scenario
Open Access
- 1 January 2011
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Wiley in Atmospheric Science Letters
- Vol. 12 (1) , 83-88
Abstract
This study documents simulated precipitation and circulation changes through the 20C3M and A1b scenarios. It portrays a robust pattern, associating rainfall deficits in subtropical regions with rainfall excesses over West Africa, except in Northern Senegal and Mauritania, with a significant enhancement of both the April–June rainy season in 10/12 models and of the July–September rainy season in 8/12 models. Eastward to 5°W a northward shift in the latitude of the moisture flux convergence at 850 hPa is evident in 10/11 models (+0.58° in mean) and a southward shift in 6/11 models in the western region (−0.24°) is observed. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological SocietyKeywords
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