Exchange Rates, Supply Chain Activity/Disruption Effects, and Exports

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Abstract
In the past, South African monetary policy aimed to protect the external value of the domestic currency (Rand); however, these efforts failed. Later, its monetary policy approach changed to allow the foreign exchange rate market to determine the exchange rates. In such a change, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) aimed to stabilize the demand for the Rand in the foreign exchange market by providing information to stabilize market expectations and create favorable market conditions. However, South African policymakers have struggled with currency depreciation since the early 60s, increasing the uncertainty of South African exports. This study aims to examine the effect of currency depreciation on exports using the Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) model. Additionally, this study created and validated the supply chain activity/disruption index to capture the sea trade activity. The sample period for the analysis is 2009 to 2023. The study finds that currency depreciation does not improve trade between South Africa and its trading partners over time. Furthermore, the currency depreciation was found to be asymmetric to the effect of international trade across the different regimes. The supply chain activity index shows that the effect of supply chain activity/disruption on exports is regime-dependent. This implies that the effect on exports is dependent on the economic environment.

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