Predicting Effortful Control at 3 Years of Age From Measures of Attention and Home Environment in Infancy: A Machine Learning Approach

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Abstract
Effortful control (EC) describes individual differences in self-regulation, with a strong attentional basis. Moreover, during early childhood EC has a central role on children’s socio-emotional adjustment and academic achievement. The aim of the current study was to predict the development of EC at 36 months of age from early attentional and environmental measures taken in infancy using a machine learning approach. A sample of 75 infants participated in a longitudinal study running different waves of data collection at 6, 9 and 36 months of age. Attentional tasks were administered at 6 months of age and two additional measures were collected at 9 months of age. Parents reported household environment variables during wave 1, and their child’s EC at 36 months. A machine -learning algorithm was implemented to identify children with low EC scores at 36 months of age. An “attention only” model showed greater predictive sensitivity than the “environmental only” model. However, a model including both attentional and environmental variables was able to classify the groups (Low-EC vs Average-to-High EC) with 100% accuracy. Sensitivity analyses indicate that socio-economic variables together with attention control processes at 6-months, and self-restraint capacity at 9-months, are the most important predictors of EC. Results suggest a foundational role of executive attention processes in the development of EC in complex interaction with household environment and provide a new tool to identify early markers of socio-emotional regulation development.
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