Forecasting Spring Emergence of the Asian Corn Borer, Ostrinia furnacalis (Lepidoptera: Crambidae), Based on Postdiapause Development Rate

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Abstract
This study was conducted to develop temperature-dependent postdiapause development models of overwintering larvae of the Asian corn borer, Ostrinia furnacalis Guenée (Lepidoptera: Crambidae), and to evaluate the models’ forecasting accuracy using spring adult emergence data. Overwintering larvae were collected at three different times: 24 February (first), 23 March (second), and 25 April (third), 2005. The developmental periods of each collection colony were measured at eight constant temperatures, and those developmental rates were modeled with linear and nonlinear regression. One linear and three nonlinear models provided good fits of developmental rate to temperature across all colonies (r2 = 0.96–0.99). The distribution of development completion time was modeled with a Weibull equation that fit data from the second (r2 = 0.92) and third (r2 = 0.97) colonies better than the first (r2 = 0.87). A Lactin 2 model based on data from the first colony was statistically the best model to describe the relationship between temperature and the postdiapause development rate of O. furnacalis (r2adj = 0.99). However, validation results based on the field data showed that the Logan 6 model combined with the Weibull model (based on the second colony) was well describing spring adult emergence patterns up to 50% cumulative emergence date.

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