Exploring Climate Change Adaptation Perceptions and Behavioral Responses in Iranian Desert Tourism: An Empirical Investigation from Qom Province

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Abstract
Adaptation to climate change in vulnerable tourism destinations, particularly desert regions, requires a systematic understanding of tourists’ psychological responses and behavioral adaptations. This study develops and empirically validates an integrated theoretical framework combining the Theory of Planned Behavior and Protection Motivation Theory to examine psychological determinants of tourist adaptation in Iran’s desert regions. The research systematically evaluates the relationships between risk perception, adaptation assessment, climate change beliefs, and behavioral outcomes through structural equation modeling analysis of data collected across three desert destinations in Qom Province. Results demonstrate that tourist motivation (β = 0.416, p < 0.001) and climate change beliefs (β = 0.158, p < 0.001) significantly influence adaptation intentions, while subjective norms show no significant effect despite the collectivist cultural context. The model explains 38.6% of the variance in adaptation intentions and 21.0% in maladaptive behaviors, revealing differential predictability between positive and negative responses. Analysis indicates that immediate experiential factors demonstrate a more decisive influence than abstract climate change beliefs, suggesting context-specific adaptation mechanisms in desert tourism settings. This research advances the theoretical understanding of tourist adaptation behavior while providing evidence-based recommendations for destination management in climatically vulnerable regions. The findings inform the development of targeted communication strategies and management interventions that balance environmental awareness with destination attractiveness, contributing to sustainable desert tourism development.

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