Where if? Using spatial, building-stock-driven simulations to explore construction circularity strategies in Gothenburg, Sweden

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Abstract
Recycling construction materials can significantly reduce the environmental impact of the construction and demolition sector. However, implementing circularity strategies requires a spatially refined understanding of material stock dynamics. In this study, we introduce a stock-driven and rule-based simulation that forecasts – over space and time – material stocks, flows, and associated embodied carbon resulting from construction, renovation, and demolition activities. It enables the exploration of how urban parameters, such as the recycled content of new constructions, demolition rates, renovation rates, and different types of new construction, influence material flows and embodied carbon. Using Gothenburg’s residential building stock, we demonstrate the simulation's capabilities by tracking eight building materials along with their embodied carbon over time, across the parameters, and for two scenarios: a baseline, and a policy on energy efficiency. The simulation can be expanded to include more materials and built environment assets, facilitating informed decision-making and strategies for a sustainable construction sector.

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