Multiscalar and nonlinear controls of drought impacts in Spain revealed by media-reported data

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Abstract
This study assesses the multiscalar and nonlinear relationships between drought severity, characterized by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and media-reported hydrological and agricultural impacts across Spain during 1976–2023. Drought indices were derived from a high-resolution gridded climate dataset (1.1 km), while impact data were obtained from standardized monthly frequencies of drought-related newspaper articles at the provincial scale. Results demonstrate robust temporal coherence between drought conditions and impacts, with major drought episodes associated with anomalies exceeding +1 to +2 standard deviations. Drought–impact relationships strengthen markedly with accumulation timescale, reaching maximum correlations at 12–30 months (|r|≈0.6–0.8), while short timescales (1–3 months) show weak associations (|r|<0.3). Hydrological impacts are primarily associated with accumulated medium- and long-term moisture deficits (12–48 months), whereas agricultural impacts are associated with shorter accumulation timescales (3–12 months). However, for both sectors, dominant accumulation timescales lengthen as drought severity increases. Sensitivity analyses reveal pronounced nonlinear responses, with the frequency of media reports on impacts increasing disproportionately during severe drought conditions with a peak at 12–36 months. The consistently stronger association of SPEI relative to SPI, especially for agricultural impacts, suggests a dominant contribution of atmospheric evaporative demand. Our results indicate that the frequency of media reports on impacts is associated with accumulated moisture deficits and temperature-dependent processes across timescales and provide a framework for improved impact-based drought monitoring in a warming climate.
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  • Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (PID2022-137244OB-I00)

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