Increasing age predicts adverse pathology including intraductal carcinoma of the prostate and cribriform patterns in deferred radical prostatectomy after upfront active surveillance for Gleason grade group 1 prostate cancer: analysis of prospective observational study cohort

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Abstract
In men undergoing upfront active surveillance, predictors of adverse pathology in radical prostatectomy specimens, including intraductal carcinoma of the prostate and cribriform patterns, remain unknown. Therefore, we aimed to examine whether adverse pathology in radical prostatectomy specimens could be predicted using preoperative patient characteristics. We re-reviewed available radical prostatectomy specimens from 1035 men prospectively enrolled in the PRIAS-JAPAN cohort between January 2010 and September 2020. We defined adverse pathology on radical prostatectomy specimens as Gleason grade group ≥3, pT stage ≥3, pN positivity or the presence of intraductal carcinoma of the prostate or cribriform patterns. We also examined the predictive factors associated with adverse pathology. All men analyzed had Gleason grade group 1 specimens at active surveillance enrolment. The incidence of adverse pathologies was 48.9% (with intraductal carcinoma of the prostate or cribriform patterns, 33.6%; without them, 15.3%). The addition of intraductal carcinoma of the prostate or cribriform patterns to the definition of adverse pathology increased the incidence by 10.9%. Patients showing adverse pathology with intraductal carcinoma of the prostate or cribriform patterns had lower biochemical recurrence-free survival (log-rank P = 0.0166). Increasing age at active surveillance enrolment and before radical prostatectomy was the only predictive factor for adverse pathology (odds ratio: 1.1, 95% confidence interval: 1.02–1.19, P = 0.0178; odds ratio: 1.12, 95% confidence interval: 1.02–1.22, P = 0.0126). Increasing age could be a predictive factor for adverse pathology. Our findings suggest that older men could potentially derive advantages from adhering to the examination schedule in active surveillance.

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