Can dynamic changes in prognostic markers predict survival in patients receiving VEGF-targeted therapy in clear cell renal cell carcinoma?

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Abstract
E16061 Background: Markers of the systemic inflammatory response have prognostic value in ccRCC prior to starting treatment. Dynamic changes during therapy and their role in predicting prognosis are not well characterised. Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted of a randomised, double-blind phase II study evaluating cediranib vs cediranib and saracatinib in patients with relapsed metastatic ccRCC (COSAK). Haemoglobin (Hb), neutrophil count (N0) platelet count (Plt), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and C-reactive protein (CRP) were recorded at randomisation, 8-weeks and progression (PD). Change in mean values at each time point were compared. Baseline prognostic values for overall survival (OS) were assessed using Cox regression. Absolute changes in parameters were calculated at 8 weeks and PD, patients were grouped around the upper or lower quartile. Prognostic value of dynamic changes was assessed at 8 weeks and PD using the Kaplan-Meier method. Results: 138 patients were assessed; median OS was 12.0 months (IQR 8.1-15.6 months). Outcomes in the combination arm were similar to single agent arm (HR 1.28 (1.00–1.63)). On multivariate analysis at baseline, MSKCC score (0/1-2/≥3) (HR 2.52 (1.60 -3.96)), CRP ( < 10/≥10mg/L) (HR 1.72 (1.04 – 2.86)) and N0 ( < 7.5/≥7.5x109) (HR 2.38 (1.43 – 3.96)) were independent predictors of OS. Mean CRP was significantly different at baseline, 8 weeks and PD (64.9, 42.3 and 85.7 mg/L respectively, p < 0.001). Mean N0 count at baseline was 5.3 x109/L and was significantly higher 6.3x 109/L at PD (p < 0.001). Mean Hb at baseline, 8 weeks and PD was 11.5, 13.0 and 12.9g/L respectively (P < 0.001). A rise in CRP or N0 at 8 weeks was predictive of poor outcome ((HR 1.62 (1.10-2.56) and (HR 1.77 (1.19-2.61) respectively). A fall in Hb was predictive of poor outcome at 8 weeks (HR 1.75 (1.18-2.60)) and PD (HR 1.80 (1.20-2.76)). Conclusions: Dynamic changes occur in prognostic markers in patients receiving VEGF-targeted therapy in ccRCC and may predict OS.