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Abstract
The Gulf and Lower St. Lawrence Estuary have experienced major environmental change over the past century, including the development of hypoxic bottom waters and their simultaneous warming and acidification. Here, we use biogeochemical observations collected during the 2021–2023 TReX project as well as historical data, combined with a tracer-calibrated 1D Advection-Diffusion model with variable boundary conditions to represent dissolved oxygen (DO) and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) dynamics within the core of the oxygen minimum zone (27.15–27.3 kg m-3 isopycnals) of the Laurentian Channel. The rate of in-channel oxygen utilization in the deep layer was nearly invariant from 2003 to 2023 at 21.1 ± 2.5 µmol kg-1 yr-1 and the DIC accumulation rate was estimated to be 18.3 ± 2.5 μmol kg-1 yr-1. Using δ13CDIC data, we assess the effect of microbial organic matter remineralization processes and dilution of the 13CDIC pool (−6.6×10-3 ‰ per μmol of added metabolic DIC). These data and the use of a tracer-calibrated model to resolve advection and mixing dynamics reconcile differences in prior estimates of biogeochemical transformation rates. Finally, we apply the model to the mitigation scenario proposed by Wallace et al. (2023) for artificial re-oxygenation of the Laurentian Channel bottom waters using pure oxygen. We estimate that the injection of ~8.3 × 105 tonnes yr-1 of oxygen, equivalent to an additional 55 μmol kg-1 relative to the 2023 boundary concentration proximal to the Cabot Strait, would be required to achieve and maintain above hypoxic levels (>62.5 μmol kg-1) at the head of the Laurentian Channel. Using the model, we estimate the time required to re-establish steady-state along-channel distributions of DO and DIC following a change in offshore boundary conditions to be about 10 years, or twice the along-channel transit time.

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