Increasing incidence of early-onset type 2 diabetes in Sweden 2006–2021

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Abstract
Our aim was to provide new data on the incidence, prevalence, and secular trend of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Sweden, specifically early-onset T2D. We followed the Swedish population 2006 to 2021 and calculated age-standardized incidence (per 100 000) and prevalence (%) of T2D (overall) and early-onset T2D (age 23–39 years) stratified by sex, region of birth, and educational level. We projected the future prevalence of early-onset T2D by combining observed trends with population projections. From 2006 to 2021, the prevalence of T2D rose from 4.87% to 7.50%, and incidence from 477 [95% confidence interval (CI) 471–482] to 574 (CI 568–579). Early-onset T2D incidence increased from 54 to 107 (4.7% annual rise; CI 3.7%–5.7%) during this period. Incidence of early-onset T2D was higher in individuals born outside Europe (211, CI 195–226 vs 89, CI 84–93 in 2021) or low education (204, CI 185–223 vs 71, CI 65–77 in 2021), but a rise in incidence was seen irrespective of educational level, region of origin, and sex. If the incidence of early-onset T2D continues to increase at the same pace, its prevalence is projected to increase from 0.64% in 2021 to 3.2% in 2050. While T2D incidence rose marginally in Sweden 2006 to 2021, there was a significant rise in early-onset T2D, seen across different socioeconomic characteristics, with prevalence more than doubling and incidence nearly doubling. This development calls for targeted preventive efforts.
Funding Information
  • Swedish Research Council (2022-00811)
  • Swedish Diabetes Foundation (DIA2024-908)
  • Strategic Research Area for Diabetes at Karolinska Institutet

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