(Don't Fear) The Yield Curve
- 1 June 2018
- journal article
- Published by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in FEDS Notes
- Vol. 2018.0 (2212)
Abstract
In this note, we show that, for predicting recessions, such measures of a "long-term spread"--the spread in yields between a far-off maturity such as 10 years and a shorter maturity such as 1 or 2 years--are statistically dominated by a more economically intuitive alternative, a "near-term forward spread."Keywords
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This publication has 5 references indexed in Scilit:
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