GFPMX: A Cobweb Model of the Global Forest Sector, with an Application to the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic

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Abstract
The GFPMX projects forest area and stock, consumption, production, imports, exports, and prices of industrial roundwood, fuelwood, sawnwood, wood-based panels, wood pulp, and paper and paperboard in 180 countries, and currently from 2018 to 2070. The core principle of the model is the cobweb theorem, according to which markets are not necessarily in equilibrium, but take some time to adjust to shocks—such as demand shifts—leading to oscillatory dynamics of prices and quantities. This paper presents the model’s structure and the estimation of its parameters from international statistics on production, trade, forest area, and forest stock. This is followed by an application of the GFPMX to the impact on the global forest sector of the economic recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

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