Increase in Storm Activity in the Kara Sea from 1979 to 2019: Numerical Simulation Data

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Abstract
Wind wave modeling (WAVEWATCH III model) is used to analyze the storm activity in the Kara Sea for the period from 1979 to 2019. The NCEP/CFSR/CFSv2 reanalysis data used as forcing. Simulations realized on the nonstructural grid with a resolution of 700 m to 10 km. The quality of wind wave simulation is assessed through a comparison with direct measurements and satellite data. The storm wave frequencies are analyzed separately for each year. It is found that storms with waves more than 3 m are observed on average about 30 times a year. The frequency of storms with waves more than 3–5 m increased twofold from 1979 to 2019. The increase in the storm frequency is due to a decrease in the sea ice cover extent. Analysis of the seasonal variations in storm activity shows that the largest amount of storms is observed from July to December. A strong positive trend in the frequency of storms is observed from October to December. Storms in January, February, and March have been observed since 2005 due to the absence of ice, which contributes significantly to the ultimate increase in the storm frequency.

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