Multi-Center Analysis of the Association Between Meteorological Factors and Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Using Logistic and Machine Learning Models in Upstate New York

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Abstract
Introduction: Ruptured intracranial aneurysms (RIAs) are a significant cause of morbidity and mortality. While individual-level risk factors for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) are well established, the influence of meteorological variables has been widely debated but remains unclear. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 1504 endovascularly treated intracranial aneurysm cases from two stroke centers (2018 to 2024). We matched daily weather data to presentation dates. We used variance inflation factor (VIF) analysis to remove collinear features. Multivariable logistic regression models were adjusted for age and sex. We developed extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models using weather variables alone and in combination with demographic covariates (age, sex, race, smoking status, and family history). Results: Of 1504 cases, 377 (25.1%) presented with rupture. In univariate logistic regression, greater humidity (odds ratio [OR] 0.988 per 1% relative humidity, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.979 to 0.998, p = 0.0135) and greater ultraviolet (UV) index (OR 0.951 per index unit, 95% CI 0.914 to 0.990, p = 0.0146) were associated with reduced odds of rupture, whereas greater snow depth (OR 1.360 per inch, 95% CI 1.068 to 1.731, p = 0.0126) and advanced moon phase (OR 1.589 per full lunar cycle, 95% CI 1.064 to 2.373, p = 0.0237) were associated with increased odds. On multivariable analysis, only female sex remained protective (OR 0.605, 95% CI 0.386 to 0.949, p = 0.0285), and greater sea level pressure trended toward lower odds of rupture without reaching significance (OR 0.962, p = 0.0523). Findings were consistent in a full-cohort, center-adjusted sensitivity analysis. The weather-only XGBoost model yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.560 and a recall of 78%, which improved to an AUC of 0.590 and a recall of 83% after adding demographic variables. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis identified precipitation and cloud cover as key meteorological features. Conclusions: Several weather variables correlated with rupture risk in univariate analysis, but overall predictive value was limited. Machine learning improved sensitivity while confirming patient features as the dominant contributors. Weather on the day of presentation was not significantly associated with rupture.

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