Predictors of interethnic tension in the multinational region of Russia

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Abstract
Interethnic security is the minimization of external and internal threats perceived by the ethnophore as a problem. Subjectively unstable security is expressed as tension in the interpersonal relations of ethnic groups historically living in the region. Tension has its own indicators – behavioral markers of the subject and predictors of its increase. The aim of the conducted theoretical and empirical study is to quantify the critical values of markers of individual behaviour of the subject, predicting the crisis development of interethnic relations by means of author diagnostic verbal tool. Methodologically, the test construct is based on the protective mechanism of the projective identification of the subject in the attestation process of the actions of a well-known person. Volunteers with higher education such as doctors, lawyers, teachers participated in the test. Based on the array of empirical data obtained, the ranges for different behavioral markers of ethnophores were defined. Normalization of diagnostic scales has been carried out in the pilot sample of 71 people using the Martin sigma method. The quintile scales of markers of subjects’ tension in the interethnic interaction were calculated. The reliability of the test according to the Spearman–Brown formula was +0.81, and the construct validity was +0.71. The discriminativity of the test according to the Ferguson formula was determined as 0.89. Tests on a representative sample confirmed the compliance with all psychometric characteristics. The limits of applicability were outlined and the hidden prognostic capabilities of the designed diagnostic tool were revealed.

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