Political Polarization of Belief in Climate Change and Its Impact on Policy Support Among Politicians and Citizens From Eight Countries

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Abstract
Despite scientific consensus, beliefs in human-driven climate change are often influenced by political orientation. Although this political polarization of beliefs may stall mitigation policies, few studies have investigated politicians’ beliefs in human-driven climate change compared to citizens. This study explores how political orientation affects belief in climate change and policy support among politicians (N = 714) and citizens (N = 18,281) in eight developed democracies (Australia, Belgium (Flanders and Wallonia separately), Czechia, Germany, Israel, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and Norway). In all countries, we find weaker belief in human-driven climate change among right-leaning politicians and citizens. This polarization was even stronger among politicians, with right-leaning politicians showing weaker climate change beliefs than their electorate. Furthermore, these politically polarized beliefs play a crucial role in policymaking, since belief in climate change mediates the impact of political orientation on mitigation policy support among politicians. Our findings highlight the need to debias beliefs and realign politicians’ and voters’ views about climate change, especially on the right-wing, to promote mitigation action.