Urbanization in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area 1900–2020: Urban Dynamics and Driving Factors

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Abstract
The variability of urban growth in the Mexico City conurbation reflects the complexity of changes and uncertainty experienced in many urban areas. The goal of this project is to identify how the urban expansion of the Mexico City conurbation reflects the changes in socioeconomic variables of the region over recent decades. The authors first spatially quantified the rate of urban growth from 1990 to 2020 using Landsat data and then identified the socioeconomic variables associated with this urban expansion. Results showed a progressive loss in vegetated land and an increase in urban land. The population’s access to roads and the marginalization index had the highest positive correlation with the observed urban growth. Although these variables were highly correlated with each other, access to roads was not found to be a variable of importance for projecting urban growth. Finally, two distinct zones of urban growth were determined using cluster statistics; the first showed no growth, which corresponded with more established, older municipalities closer to the city centre, and the second zone had significant growth, which corresponded to municipalities away from the centre, coinciding with urban decentralization and new lifestyle patterns. The identification of urban growth zones and socioeconomic variables associated with that growth will assist with effective planning, infrastructure development, and resource management.

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