An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Global Risk Sentiment, Gold Prices, and Interest Rate Differentials on Exchange Rate Dynamics in South Africa

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Abstract
Exchange rate volatility poses significant challenges for emerging markets, influencing trade balances, inflation, and capital flows. South Africa’s Rand is particularly vulnerable to global risk sentiment, gold price fluctuations, and interest rate differentials, yet prior studies often analyse these factors in isolation. This study integrates them within an autoregressive distributed lag framework, using monthly data from 2005 to 2023 to capture both short-term fluctuations and long-term equilibrium effects. The findings confirm that higher global risk sentiment triggers immediate Rand depreciation, driven by capital outflows to safe-haven assets. Conversely, rising gold prices and favourable interest rate differentials stabilise the Rand, strengthening trade balances and attracting capital inflows. These results underscore the interconnected nature of global financial conditions and exchange rate movements. This study highlights the importance of economic diversification, foreign reserve accumulation, and proactive monetary policies in mitigating currency instability in emerging markets.

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