Linking Land Use and Energy System Optimization for Climate Mitigation: A Swedish case Study

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Abstract
The Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use sectors account for approximately 20% of global greenhouse gas emissions, highlighting their critical role in achieving decarbonization targets. Despite their importance, these sectors remain inadequately represented in traditional energy-environment-economy modeling frameworks used to design emission reduction pathways. This study investigates how integrating AFOLU systems into energy system optimization models affects the assessment of net-zero pathways and land-energy nexus. In doing so, the paper proposes a best practice to include and link land use sectors within energy models. By modeling the consumption of natural resources, such as land and water, the framework captures the inherent competition between processes. Furthermore, the techno-economic characterization of land-based mitigation options-including detailed manure management, biogas & biomass production, and afforestation-strengthens the nexus representation across sectors. Using Sweden as a case study, it is demonstrated that adding land use sectors to energy models enhances their accuracy by capturing additional positive and negative emissions without distorting global outcomes. Eighteen scenarios, tested under various sensitivities and policy drivers, reveal that emissions related to land use could be reduced by over 45% by 2050. Specifically, more than 30% of this reduction is attributed to organic farming and over 15% results from livestock management.

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