Re-Examining Risk of Repeated HLA Mismatch in Kidney Transplantation

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Abstract
Kidney retransplantation is a risk factor for decreased allograft survival. Repeated mismatched HLA antigens between first and second transplant may be a stimulus for immune memory responses and increased risk of alloimmune damage to the second allograft. Historical data identified a role of repeated HLA mismatches in allograft loss. However, evolution of HLA testing methods and a modern transplant era necessitate re-examination of this role to more accurately risk-stratify recipients. We conducted a contemporary registry analysis of data from 13,789 patients who received a second kidney transplant from 1995 to 2011, of which 3868 had one or more repeated mismatches. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards modeling revealed no effect of repeated mismatches on all–cause or death–censored graft loss. Analysis of predefined subgroups, however, showed that any class 2 repeated mismatch increased the hazard of death–censored graft loss, particularly in patients with detectable panel–reactive antibody before second transplant (hazard ratio [HR], 1.15; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.02 to 1.29). Furthermore, in those who had nephrectomy of the first allograft, class 2 repeated mismatches specifically associated with all–cause (HR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.07 to 1.58) and death–censored graft loss (HR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.78). These updated data redefine the effect of repeated mismatches in retransplantation and challenge the paradigm that repeated mismatches in isolation confer increased immunologic risk. We also defined clear recipient categories for which repeated mismatches may be of greater concern in a contemporary cohort. Additional studies are needed to determine appropriate interventions for these recipients.

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