Intelligent Synchronization of Machine Learning Models Using Graph Neural Networks: Application to Flood Prediction

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Abstract
Flood prediction remains a critical challenge in environmental risk management and disaster preparedness. Accurate river-level forecasting is essential for the development of reliable early warning systems and the mitigation of flood-related risks. However, conventional ensemble approaches, such as averaging and majority voting, often exhibit limited adaptability when individual models respond differently to anomalies or incomplete data. To address this limitation, this study proposes a graph-based synchronization framework that integrates XGBoost and Random Forest models using a Graph Convolutional Network (GCN). The proposed framework represents the outputs of the base prediction models as graph nodes and employs graph message passing to learn context-dependent relationships between their predictions. The framework is evaluated using real-world hydrological observations from the Lepenec River Basin in North Macedonia together with meteorological data obtained from the OpenWeatherMap API. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed GCN-based synchronization framework outperforms both the standalone prediction models and the previously proposed linear synchronization method, achieving an R2 value of 0.91 and a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.21. The obtained results indicate that graph-based synchronization provides an adaptive approach for integrating heterogeneous machine-learning models and has the potential to support future flood early-warning systems and intelligent environmental monitoring applications.
Funding Information
  • Goce Delčev University

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