Development of a nomogram to predict 30-day mortality of patients with sepsis-associated encephalopathy: a retrospective cohort study

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Abstract
Background: Sepsis-associated encephalopathy (SAE) is related to increased short-term mortality in patients with sepsis. We aim to establish a user-friendly nomogram for individual prediction of 30-day risk of mortality in patients with SAE. Methods: Data were retrospectively retrieved from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC III) open source clinical database. SAE was defined by Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) < 15 or delirium at the presence of sepsis. Prediction model with a nomogram was constructed in the training set by logistic regression analysis and then undergone internal validation and sensitivity analysis. Results: SAE accounted for about 50% in patients with sepsis and was independently associated with the 30-day mortality of sepsis. Variables eligible for the nomogram included patient’s age and clinical parameters on the first day of ICU admission including the GCS score, lactate, bilirubin, red blood cell distribution width (RDW), mean value of respiratory rate and temperature, and the use of vasopressor. Compared with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and Logistic Organ Dysfunction System (LODS), the nomogram exhibited better discrimination with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.763 (95%CI 0.736–0.791, p < 0.001) and 0.753 (95%CI 0.713–0.794, p < 0.001) in the training and validation sets, respectively. The calibration plot revealed an adequate fit of the nomogram for predicting the risk of 30-day mortality in both sets. Regarding to clinical usefulness, the DCA of the nomogram exhibited greater net benefit than SOFA and LODS in both of the training and validation sets. Besides, the nomogram exhibited acceptable discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness in sensitivity analysis. Conclusions: SAE is related to increased 30-day mortality of patients with sepsis. The nomogram presents excellent performance in predicting 30-day risk of mortality in SAE patients, which can be used to evaluate the prognosis of patients with SAE and may be more beneficial once specific treatments towards SAE are developed.

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