Prediction of conversion to psychosis: review and future directions

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Abstract
This article reviews recent findings on predictors of conversion to psychosis among youth deemed at ultra high risk (UHR) based on the presence of subpsychotic-intensity symptoms or genetic risk for psychosis and a recent decline in functioning. Although transition rates differ between studies, the most well powered studies have observed rates of conversion to full psychosis in the 30-40% range over 2-3 years of follow-up. Across studies, severity of subthreshold positive symptoms, poorer social functioning, and genetic risk for schizophrenia appear to be consistent predictors of conversion to psychosis, with algorithms combining these indicators achieving positive predictive power > 80%. Nevertheless, a substantial fraction of UHR cases do not convert to psychosis. Recent work indicates that UHR cases who present with lower levels of negative symptoms and higher levels of social functioning are more likely to recover symptomatically and no longer meet criteria for an at-risk mental state. In general, it appears that about 1/3 of UHR cases convert to psychosis, about 1/3 do not convert but remain symptomatic and functionally impaired, and about 1/3 recover symptomatically and functionally. Continued efforts to detect early risk for psychosis are critical for informing early intervention and provide increasing promise of delaying or even preventing the onset of psychosis.

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