A Multi-Parameter Chaotic Fusion Approach for Traffic Flow Forecasting

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Abstract
Since traffic is a time-dependent and complicated non-linear system. Chaos Theory has been specifically designed to identify chaotic behaviour and properties for such systems. Previous researches have been restricted to single traffic parameter, which fails to get actual behaviour of the traffic systems. In this work, we have devised the multi-parameters chaos prediction method to describe the tendency of traffic from different aspects for prediction of single parameter chaotic time series. The fusion method is considered the relationship of different traffic parameters according to the phase space reconstruction. Taking the exit ramp of Xishanping expressway in Beibei district, Chongqing Municipality as the example, the feasibility and reliability of traffic state prediction were tested. The trail results indicates that more features of realistic traffic conditions are reflected by fusing multiple traffic parameters, and gain real accuracy improvements in traffic prediction. Compared with three single-parameter time series prediction methods, the mean absolute relative error of the multi-parameter prediction method decreased by 2.42, 2.39 and 0.8 respectively, the mean absolute relative error decreased by 2.33, 3.25 and 1.27, and the equal coefficient reached 0.9528 with a slight increase. Proposed method will definitely generates the opportunity for next generation of traffic control that are better able to detect the dynamic states of traffic, and therefore more effectively prevent the traffic congestion and pollution in the urban areas worldwide.

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