Suburban Poverty Risk in Planned New Towns in Japan: Socio-Spatial Transformation in a Shrinking Conurbation

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Abstract
Suburban poverty has been widely examined in growing metropolitan regions, where it is often linked to displacement, immigration, and rental market restructuring. Yet far less attention has been paid to how suburban poverty unfolds in shrinking urban contexts and how policy frameworks respond to such transformations. This study investigates the emergence and spatial differentiation of suburban poverty risk in postwar planned new towns within the Kyoto–Osaka–Kobe conurbation, a major Japanese urban region experiencing prolonged demographic decline.,Using 500 m mesh-level spatial statistics on household income and savings, combined with hierarchical cluster analysis and cohort-based population analysis, we identify areas of relative poverty risk and examine generational turnover, housing tenure, and spatial characteristics. The findings indicate that poverty risk in shrinking suburban environments does not primarily stem from the in-migration of disadvantaged households. Rather, at-risk new towns also tend to exhibit limited generational inflow and constrained cohort replacement, contributing to gradual asset depletion within owner-oriented suburban landscapes.,Unlike displacement-driven suburban poverty observed in Western contexts, this pattern reflects an internally evolving process associated with demographic aging and weakened intergenerational renewal. At the policy level, the analysis highlights a structural divide between welfare policy and urban planning, as regeneration strategies seldom incorporate socio-economic vulnerability into spatial policy frameworks. The findings underscore the need for more integrated approaches that align welfare systems with landscape and urban regeneration strategies in shrinking conurbations.

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