Predicting the Threat Status of Mosses Using Functional Traits

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Abstract
Mosses are an early lineage of the plant kingdom, with around 13,000 species. Although an important part of biodiversity, providing crucial ecosystem services, many species are threatened with extinction. However, only circa 300 species have so far had their extinction risk evaluated globally for the IUCN Red List. Functional traits are known to help predict the extinction risk of species in other plant groups. In this study, a matrix of 15 functional traits was produced for 723 moss species from around the world to evaluate the potential of such predictability. Binary generalized linear models showed that monoicous species were more likely to be threatened than dioicous species, and the presence of a sporophyte (sexual reproduction), vegetative reproduction and an erect (straight) capsule instead of a pendent (immersed) one lowers the risk of species extinction. A longer capsule, seta and stem length, as well as broader substrate breadth, are indicative of species with a lower risk of extinction. The best-performing models fitted with few traits were able to predict extinction risks of species with good accuracy. These models applied to Data Deficient (DD) species proved how useful they may be to speed up the IUCN Red List assessment process while reducing the number of listed DD species, by selecting species most in need of a full, detailed assessment. Some traits tested in this study are a novelty in conservation research on mosses, opening new possibilities for future studies. The traits studied and the models presented here are a significant contribution to the knowledge of mosses at risk of extinction and will help to improve conservation efforts.

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