Risk analysis of the causes of time and cost overruns in the Lebanese precast industry

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Abstract
Introduction: The purpose of this article is to analyse the causes and risk behind time and cost overruns in the Lebanese precast sector, mainly hollow core slabs, precast beams and column. Methods: The methodology includes the following steps: (i) a review of the time and cost overrun causes in the global construction industry; (ii) the use of questionnaires to identify causes specific to the Lebanese precast industry; (iii) an examination of the significance, frequency, and impact of the causes; (iv) the ranking of the causes; and (v) the performance of quantitative risk analysis. Discussion: The most significant time overrun cause, according to research, is “Lack or delay of delivery of materials in markets”, while the most significant cost overrun cause is “Fluctuations in the cost of building materials”. The ranking results reveal a clear pattern: “financial management, contractual stability, and early design coordination” are the dominant determinants of both time and cost overruns in the Lebanese precast industry. According to the risk analysis study results, a project with a 50% risk level has a 37% time overrun potential and a 29% cost overrun potential. These findings imply that targeted interventions addressing the highest-probability causes can substantially reduce schedule risk, whereas cost control requires systemic and integrated strategies spanning design management, financial planning, contractual clarity, and market risk allocation. Conclusions: The primary causes of time and expense overruns in the Lebanese precast sector can be identified, ranked, and evaluated for risk by owners, project managers, and engineers thanks to this study. This study is the first to examine the causes that contribute to time and cost overruns in the precast concrete sector in Lebanon.

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