Can development alone save lives? trends and forecasts of congenital heart anomalies–attributable premature mortality in ASEAN

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Abstract
Background: Congenital heart anomalies (CHAs) are a leading cause of premature childhood mortality and contribute substantially to years of life lost (YLL). Despite overall improvements in child survival in Southeast Asia, progress in reducing CHA-attributed mortality has been uneven. Examining how trends in CHA-related YLL align with socioeconomic development is critical for informing targeted health system investments. This study assesses trends and projections of CHA-attributed premature mortality in ASEAN countries from 2000 to 2030 in relation to development levels. Methods: Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 were used to extract CHA-attributed YLL rates, including all-age and age-stratified estimates ( 600 per 100,000). The estimated trends in Singapore and Brunei Darussalam exceeded those expected under the SDI-adjusted projections, with projected YLLs of 17.35 and 131.67 per 100,000 population, respectively. Conclusion: CHA-attributed premature mortality is largely preventable but not assured by development alone. Greater YLL reductions occur when investment in pediatric cardiac care keep pace with socioeconomic progress, highlighting the need for targeted interventions in countries with rising SDI but limited mortality reduction.
Funding Information
  • Imperial College London

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