Reference Scenarios for Policies to Minimize the Generation and Recycling of Municipal Solid Waste

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Abstract
This article aims to design and propose time-evolution scenarios to support the implementation of policy instruments that promote recycling and minimize MSW generation. Two reference scenarios, Audacious and Realistic, are presented, drawing on international and Brazilian references and represented by S-shaped curves and your inflection points. For each scenario, instruments and guidelines are proposed and classified by experts for their applicability to Brazilian municipalities of various population groups. Findings highlight educational and economic instruments as primary drivers of recycling and waste reduction, yielding significant decreases in per capita generation (47%) and recycling rates (24% recyclables and 20% organics). The survey with experts confirms that these strategies are broadly applicable across different population groups. The proposed scenarios contribute to the policy instruments implementation to reduce MSW generation and promote recycling, enabling decision-makers to select effective strategies for MSW management plans and supporting future studies in evaluating policy impacts through mathematical modeling.
Funding Information
  • Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior – Brasil (CAPES) – Finance Code 001
  • Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico - CNPq (Process 312382/2021-9)

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