Urban growth modeling based on cellular automata with transition rules optimized using genetic fuzzy systems

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Abstract
This article presents a new methodology for urban growth modeling by integrating cellular automata (CA) and genetic fuzzy algorithms. The urban growth phenomenon is a spatio‐temporal and continuous process that can be modeled by employing fuzzy logic as a framework for handling vagueness. Dependence upon an expert for assigning membership functions and rule weights has made the fuzzy logic approach rather subjective. Our proposed methodology overcomes this shortcoming by applying genetic algorithms to tune and optimize the fuzzy logic system and to make it expert independent. The optimization process encompasses a fuzzy membership function and weights for fuzzy rules. This model uses linguistic variables for defining CA transition rules and applies them to represent the non‐deterministic nature of urban growth. The proposed model is applied to simulate urban growth in the Tehran Metropolitan Area in Iran across time steps of 1988, 1999, and 2010 developed using Landsat TM and ETM+ images and a Digital Elevation Model. The first data pairs were employed for calibration of the model parameters, and the remainder of the data was used for validation of the model across time. The model was evaluated using a relative operating characteristic of 0.88 and a figure of merit statistic of 0.31, which quantifies the model goodness of fit.

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