Strategic Planning for Land Use under Extreme Climate Changes: A Case Study in Taiwan

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Abstract
Extreme weather caused by global climate change affects slope-land in Taiwan, causing soil loss, floods, and sediment hazards. Although Taiwan is a small island, the population density is ranked second highest worldwide. With three-fourths of the island area being slope-land, soil and water conservation (SWC) is crucial. Therefore, because of the impact of climate and social change, the means of maintaining sustainable development of slope-land and the safety of the living environment in Taiwan is a developing and crucial issue. This study applied four foresight analysis tools that covered both qualitative and quantitative aspects, including international trend analysis, a focus group, the Delphi method, and a strategy roadmap. By combining the four analysis tools, we developed corresponding strategies to address climate change for use as references for policy-makers. The findings of this study can contribute to consensus-forming among multiple stakeholders on the sustainable development of soil and water resources and to devising foresight strategies for SWC in short-term, middle-term, and long-term bases. Ultimately, the goal of “considering climate and socioeconomic change, watershed resources being managed on a multiple-use basis to avoid disasters and to sustain SWC” can be realized by the year 2025.

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