Land use change scenarios building combining agricultural development policies, landscape planning approaches and ecosystem services assessment. The Campania Region (Italy) case-study

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Abstract
In the last two centuries, land use change (LUC) has been the most important direct changes driver for terrestrial ecosystems. To contrast the consequent ecosystems degradation, forward-looking spatial policies and target landscape and land-use planning processes, promoting a sustainable land use change, are needed. The present paper proposes a framework of action including different landscape planning and ecological approaches: from the spatial modelling to recognize the LUC and build different scenarios, to the ecosystem services (ESs) assessment to evaluate the possible environmental impacts. Three different scenarios were built: Trend, No-Tillage and Energy crops. The Sediment Delivery Ratio and Carbon Storage and Sequestration ESs were assessed and compared for each scenario. The aim of the paper is to support decision-makers and local communities into the landscape planning process. Results show that a regional development in line with past trend could lead to further land degradation. Instead, the two scenarios proposed in compliance with EU policies, could bring benefits only if related to moderate LUCs and respecting the naturally grass-vegetated land. From the local to global scale, a guided and shared LUC management allows implementing sustainable development, basing on a deep knowledge of physical-environmental but also social and economic issues.
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