Rapid soybean expansion in South Africa (2018–2025): land sources, spatial drivers, and potential areas

Authors:
Preprint
Publisher website
Google Scholar
Abstract
South Africa has emerged as Africa's largest soybean producer, with cultivated area increasing by approximately 55% between 2018 and 2025. Understanding how this rapid expansion is reshaping the country's landscape is critical for agricultural planning and conservation, particularly given the well-documented ecological costs of soybean expansion in South America. This study integrates 10 m soybean time-series maps (SoySA10), land cover products, and 24 spatial factors to identify land sources, key drivers, and potential areas for soybean expansion in South Africa. Different from South America, where new soybean was mainly converted from pastures on previously deforested land, 87.4% of newly cultivated soybean in South Africa originated from land that was already cropland in 1990 and 2020, with 97.3% grown in rotation with other crops. Cropland proportion (within a 1 km cell) and distance to storage facilities emerged as the two most important drivers nationally. Factor importance varied across provinces, reflecting contrasts between regions where large-scale farming dominates (Free State, North West, and Mpumalanga) and those where smallholder farming is more prevalent (KwaZulu-Natal and Limpopo). Potential future expansion is more likely around existing hotspots in Free State and North West, but with a shift from cropland to grassland-dominated areas and, in some provinces, towards protected areas or forests. Further expansion will require additional investment in storage and processing infrastructure. These findings can support spatial planning for infrastructure investment, cropland intensification, and ecosystem conservation in South Africa, and the analytical framework can be transferred to other emerging producing countries across the Global South.

This publication has 54 references indexed in Scilit: